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sinbad10

P&O ships futures.

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Believe depending on contract signed that Iona 2 will be either cancelled or very seriously delayed and that because of their age I think Oceana's and Aurora's futures will be in very serious doubt as P&O will streamline their fleet to cut costs and keep the larger ships where profits will be higher. I think even with the loyalty of many past cruisers some will decide not to cruise again and where in recent years cruising has increased year on year I think many future cruisers after recent publicity will change their minds and not cruise. P&O I think will struggle to fill 20000 people in cruise ships week in week out so will only end up with a streamlining of the fleet.

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I do fear that you could be right Sinbad.  I certainly think it will hasten Oceana's departure and potentially Aurora and maybe even Arcadia.  I can only hope not though as that will see the end of my cruising days with P&O.  The argument about new and larger ships being much more cost-effective is however compelling.  As you say, Iona 2 will definitely have a significant delay and she may not even see the light of day.

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I am surprised the focus is on the removal of Oceana and Aurora. I am coming to the conclusion we could well see P&O and Princess merging into a much refined fleet of mid to large ships. There is much to be said in removing the older vessels from both cruise lines then bring about efficiencies of scale by merger.

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48 minutes ago, Captain Kidd II said:

I am surprised the focus is on the removal of Oceana and Aurora. I am coming to the conclusion we could well see P&O and Princess merging into a much refined fleet of mid to large ships. There is much to be said in removing the older vessels from both cruise lines then bring about efficiencies of scale by merger.

Since Princess is predominantly a US based cruise line and P&O is even more a totally UK based company, then I see no prospect of Carnival merging their operations, and even when Princess was a subsidiary of P&O there was no effort made to merge them.

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I agree towny44. They were purchased by P&O in 1974 and then broke away to become what they are today. Why would they want to merge with a cruise line that has 1 new ship, 3 fairly new and 2 old. They operate two different types of cruises attracting people with different ideas of what cruising should be, have different price structures and if it were ever contemplated Princess are so big now they would swallow P&O. As always, just my opinion.

 

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1 hour ago, Oldworldtraveller said:

I agree towny44. They were purchased by P&O in 1974 and then broke away to become what they are today. Why would they want to merge with a cruise line that has 1 new ship, 3 fairly new and 2 old. They operate two different types of cruises attracting people with different ideas of what cruising should be, have different price structures and if it were ever contemplated Princess are so big now they would swallow P&O. As always, just my opinion.

 

They are both part of Carnival so Princess does not need to swallow up P&O, but I doubt that any restructuring of the Carnival group caused due to the Covid19 crisis would see Princess and P&O merged together.

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2 hours ago, towny44 said:

They are both part of Carnival so Princess does not need to swallow up P&O,

Correct towny44, but although part of the same holding company they do of course operate as totally separate entities.  P&O are  "Carnival 'UK' Limited" as registered at Companies House with a separate limited company number but Princess Cruises are part of "Carnival Corporation" as listed in the USA. Holland and America also have a separate listing hence their separate listing on the NYSE. 

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Although of course anything is possible under the extreme circumstances we find ourselves in, I don't see a re-merger of P&O and Princess as they are now so far apart in both product and market.

Of course, whilst not formally merged, P&O share many services/resources with Cunard.  They are both headquartered in Carnival House, Southampton and appear to share staff at many levels.

A lot will depend on how big the dent in the cruise market is.  Another forum I look in on has run a survey about whether people want to carry on cruising and of nearly 3000 respondents so far, two-thirds say they will return as soon as possible.  Whether that is the case when push comes to shove remains to be seen but even a third downturn in numbers will lead to some fleet rationalisation I think.

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The crusing industry is one that is always evolving, and not neccessarily always towards larger and larger ships. NCL have announced recently that their next class of ship will be the Leonardo Class - 140,000 tons to form a fleet class of 6 to be built by Fincantineri. Thus NCl are reducing future ships in sieze, not a lot but at least a start.

As to P&O's current make up, Iona and indeed Britannia before were ordered to a certain extent to counteract the incursion of Celebrity and RCI with the introduction of their mega ships into Southampton.

Britannia (Royal Pirncess Class) has never been a total hit with the UK market, primarily because of her layout, and Iona - Excellence class has at least a better layout - evidently someone at Carnival Group has taken heed of the adverse comments from the UK and of course Princess travellers in the states. The excellence class has been prone to delivery delays to date, although ironically Iona appears to be pretty near to time, and currently lying at Ems Haven in Germany - sea trials etc. Given that Iona 2 is no 5 out of at least a 7 ship order run., if it does not end up with P&O it will simply be transferred to another brand - Aida / Carnival and Costa have current allocations with Aida already operating ship 1 and Costa ship 2.

Remember the story of Arcadia, laid down for Holland America, tranferred to Cunard and then finished as Arcadia for P&O.

As to fleet disposals, yes I agree Aracdia / Aurora and Oceania are probable endangered species, however it is not that simple, the Adults only senario as projected by P&O marketing operationally is something different with and average age of 75 plus, and very quiet ships in the evening. So if oush comes to shove, I would wager Aurora, then Oceania, followed by Arcadia would be the hit order.

 

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On 4/3/2020 at 2:51 PM, Ulsterprince001 said:

The crusing industry is one that is always evolving, and not neccessarily always towards larger and larger ships. NCL have announced recently that their next class of ship will be the Leonardo Class - 140,000 tons to form a fleet class of 6 to be built by Fincantineri. Thus NCl are reducing future ships in sieze, not a lot but at least a start.

As to P&O's current make up, Iona and indeed Britannia before were ordered to a certain extent to counteract the incursion of Celebrity and RCI with the introduction of their mega ships into Southampton.

Britannia (Royal Pirncess Class) has never been a total hit with the UK market, primarily because of her layout, and Iona - Excellence class has at least a better layout - evidently someone at Carnival Group has taken heed of the adverse comments from the UK and of course Princess travellers in the states. The excellence class has been prone to delivery delays to date, although ironically Iona appears to be pretty near to time, and currently lying at Ems Haven in Germany - sea trials etc. Given that Iona 2 is no 5 out of at least a 7 ship order run., if it does not end up with P&O it will simply be transferred to another brand - Aida / Carnival and Costa have current allocations with Aida already operating ship 1 and Costa ship 2.

Remember the story of Arcadia, laid down for Holland America, tranferred to Cunard and then finished as Arcadia for P&O.

As to fleet disposals, yes I agree Aracdia / Aurora and Oceania are probable endangered species, however it is not that simple, the Adults only senario as projected by P&O marketing operationally is something different with and average age of 75 plus, and very quiet ships in the evening. So if oush comes to shove, I would wager Aurora, then Oceania, followed by Arcadia would be the hit order.

 

Not sure I entirely agree with everything you say there.  Although some of the lines have slightly scaled back their new-builds in terms of size, the general trend for most lines is still in an upward direction.  Some, like Cunard, HAL and Princess have tried to resist it but their ships are still growing in size.  What happens now of course is anyone's guess.  This crisis must dent the cruise market to some degree - either temporarily or permanently.

I still believe the next P&O ship to go will be Oceana.  She is the same age as Aurora but was built for warm weather cruising, which is why P&O have in recent years used her for fly-cruises in the Med and Gulf region.  They have already decided to put Azura into the Med for fly-cruises next year. The Gulf region is constantly unstable.  Aurora is much more flexible, with a covered pool and better inside public space for cool weather cruises.  With Iona coming in, I think they will feel that they have more than enough berths on the family-friendly ships.  P&O made Aurora adult-only quite recently, so must feel there is enough demand for two such ships.

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On 4/3/2020 at 2:51 PM, Ulsterprince001 said:

As to fleet disposals, yes I agree Aracdia / Aurora and Oceania are probable endangered species, however it is not that simple, the Adults only senario as projected by P&O marketing operationally is something different with and average age of 75 plus, and very quiet ships in the evening. So if oush comes to shove, I would wager Aurora, then Oceania, followed by Arcadia would be the hit order.

 

I would agree that Oceana is possibly endangered, but Aurora and Arcadia are ships with their own "following" and the Adult Only market is growing - from just one ship it has doubled to the current two, and elsewhere Warner Leisure Hotels are also expanding. I think that the Adult Only market would be more resistant to bigger ships and indeed are more traditional in their cruising style.

I would bet on Ventura being the other endangered vessel... with a possible move to P&O Australia, where other ex-Princess Grand class ships have already headed. After all, the family market, already happy enough to cruise on the slightly larger Britannia would probably be far more receptive to mega ships like Iona.

 

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23 hours ago, All At Sea said:

I would agree that Oceana is possibly endangered, but Aurora and Arcadia are ships with their own "following" and the Adult Only market is growing - from just one ship it has doubled to the current two, and elsewhere Warner Leisure Hotels are also expanding. I think that the Adult Only market would be more resistant to bigger ships and indeed are more traditional in their cruising style.

I would bet on Ventura being the other endangered vessel... with a possible move to P&O Australia, where other ex-Princess Grand class ships have already headed. After all, the family market, already happy enough to cruise on the slightly larger Britannia would probably be far more receptive to mega ships like Iona.

 

Certainly agree with your first paragraph.  The second paragraph will depend on what happens to the Australian cruise market,  The reputation of cruising has really been battered in Australia and also there must be a question mark over how many pax will want to take 'long distance' cruises for a while until the effects of this pandemic start to be forgotten...

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